The Caribbean Calculation — Final Brief

If We Do This:
The Caribbean Calculation

459,500 hectares. 15 nations. 30 million+ people. This is what changes when idle Caribbean land feeds its own people.

459,500ha
Accessible idle land confirmed by satellite
$6.0B+/yr
Caribbean food import bill (CARICOM)
75%
Of all Caribbean deaths from NCDs — preventable
Section 01 — The Idle Land Register

The Satellite Census: 459,500 Hectares

Every figure in this table is derived from Sentinel-2 satellite analysis of land-use patterns across 15 Caribbean nations. Idle land is defined as former agricultural or grassland with no active cultivation detected over a 24-month observation window. These parcels are available now.

CountryAccessible LandPopulationFood Import %Pilot HaFull ProgrammeDirect Jobs
🇧🇧
2,000 ha282K85%500 ha2,000 ha3,100
🇯🇲
35,000 ha2.8M80%1,000 ha35,000 ha35,350
20,000 ha1.4M85%500 ha20,000 ha13,350
🇬🇾
100,000 ha809K30%1,000 ha100,000 ha10,500
🇧🇿
60,000 ha441K50%1,000 ha60,000 ha8,400
120,000 ha11.3M50%1,000 ha120,000 ha36,350
🇸🇷
80,000 ha618K60%1,000 ha80,000 ha14,400
🇭🇹
0 ha11.7M80%0 ha0 ha2,250
4,000 ha100K90%300 ha4,000 ha4,500
🇩🇲
6,000 ha74K70%300 ha6,000 ha4,400
🇬🇩
3,500 ha115K80%200 ha3,500 ha3,750
5,000 ha47K80%300 ha5,000 ha4,100
🇱🇨
5,000 ha184K85%300 ha5,000 ha5,100
4,000 ha100K75%200 ha4,000 ha3,850
🇧🇸
15,000 ha411K90%500 ha15,000 ha11,750
15-NATION TOTAL459,500 ha30M+~75% avg5,000 ha459,500 ha~159,000
Jobs calculated at 3 direct agricultural positions per hectare (FAO labour-intensity coefficient for smallholder agroforestry). Excludes 2–4x downstream employment multiplier.
Section 02 — The Food Security Calculation

What 459,500 Hectares Produces

CARICOM nations collectively spend over US$6 billion each year importing food that Caribbean soil could grow. These are the production, income, and carbon figures when the idle land register is fully activated under an agroforestry model.

CURRENT STATE — THE PROBLEM
Regional food import bill
US$6.0B+
CARICOM 2023
Population across 15 nations
30M+ people
Average food import dependency
~75%
Population undernourished
17.2%
FAO 2023
Cannot afford a healthy diet
52%
PAHO
NCD deaths linked to poor diet
75% of all deaths
FULLY ACTIVATED — THE OUTCOME
Net farm income (460K ha × $1,799/ha)
US$828M/year
conservative
Food production (8 t/ha equiv.)
3.7M tonnes/year
Person-years of food (350 kg/yr)
10.5M person-years
Import savings (programme contribution)
~$108M/year
from Tier 2 land
Carbon credits (5 tCO2e/ha/yr)
2.3M tCO2e/year
CARICOM Vision 25 contribution
25% import reduction
CARBON VALUE — AGROFORESTRY SEQUESTRATION
2.3MtCO2e/yr
460K ha × 5 t conservative
$5/tCO2e
Norway–Guyana REDD+ price precedent
$11.5M/yr
Revenue at $5/tCO2e floor
$34.5M/yr
Revenue at ART TREES $15/tCO2e standard
Sequestration range: 3.5–9.8 tCO2e/ha/year (CIFOR-ICRAF tropical agroforestry review). Model uses conservative 5 tCO2e midpoint. REDD+ avoided deforestation value: additional $50–100M/year regional.
Section 03 — The Health Calculation

A $10B/Year NCD Crisis Linked to What We Eat

The Caribbean NCD epidemic is the worst in the Americas. Diabetes runs at double the global average. Cardiovascular disease kills at rates 3–5x higher than Europe. And the evidence is unambiguous: the shift from local foods to ultra-processed imports is the primary driver. Agriculture IS healthcare.

CountryGDP % NCDsAnnual LossNCD Deaths %CVD Rate /100KDiabetes %
🇧🇧Barbados5.34%~$385M83%180–22012–19%
🇯🇲Jamaica5.87%~$1.0B80%52–10010–12%
🇹🇹Trinidad & Tobago~5.5%~$1.5B80%>200~15%
🇬🇾Guyana~4–5%~$992M~75%52614%
🇧🇿Belize~4%~$128M~75%150–20014.5%
🇩🇴Dominican Republic~4%~$4.97B~75%>200~12%
🇸🇷Suriname~4%~$160M~75%High13%
🇭🇹Haiti~4%~$812M~70%427.710.7%
🇦🇬Antigua & Barbuda~4%~$50M~75%150–200~12%
🇩🇲Dominica~4%~$30M~75%~150~11%
🇬🇩Grenada~4%~$50M~75%~160~12%
🇰🇳St Kitts & Nevis~4%~$25M~75%~170~13%
🇱🇨St Lucia~4.5%~$80M~78%~180~12%
🇻🇨St Vincent & the Grenadines~4%~$40M~75%~160~11%
🇧🇸The Bahamas~5%~$250M~77%~190~13%
15-NATION TOTAL~5% avg~$10B/year~77% avg~200 avg~13% avg
THE CAUSAL CHAIN — HOW IMPORTS KILL
01
Food import dependency (75–90%)
Most Caribbean islands import >80% of all food consumed
02
Ultra-processed food flood
92/104 long-term studies confirm UPF causes chronic disease (Lancet 2025)
03
Obesity epidemic
25–73% overweight/obese; T&T childhood obesity 12%→51.5% in 17 years
04
Diabetes crisis (2x global avg)
Caribbean 13–15% prevalence vs 8.5% globally; DR highest in region
05
CVD explosion
Haiti: 427.7/100K. Guyana: 526/100K. US: 122.6/100K for comparison
06
Economic devastation
$10B/year, 75% of all deaths, life expectancy reversal vs LatAm
THE INTERVENTION — AGRICULTURE AS MEDICINE
JAMAICA ROI PRECEDENT (World Bank 2024)
$2.10
returned for every $1 spent on NCD prevention via diet improvement
5,700 lives saved over 15-year horizon
4.3% GDP savings in Jamaica alone
If 10% of $10B regional burden reduced → $1B saved/year
EVERY HECTARE ACTIVATED
+Reduces food import dependency (less UPF)
+Increases fresh, nutrient-dense local food availability
+Reduces NCD risk across the population catchment
+Saves healthcare costs (US$75M/yr in Barbados alone)
+Creates jobs (poverty = NCD driver — both addressed)
+Builds climate resilience (agroforestry vs monoculture)
+Generates carbon credits (additional revenue stream)
This is not just agriculture. This is a public health intervention.
2x
Caribbean diabetes vs global average (15% vs 8.5%)
IDF DIABETES ATLAS 2024
3 of 4
Caribbean deaths are NCDs — highest in the Americas
HEALTHY CARIBBEAN COALITION
51.5%
T&T childhood overweight/obese (up from 12% in 2001)
WORLD OBESITY FEDERATION
427
CVD deaths per 100K in Haiti — 3.5x the US rate
PMC / PAHO
Section 04 — The Investment Ask

Three Ways to Invest Now

The programme is designed to be phased, de-risked, and commercially sustainable by Year 3. A pilot across 5,000 hectares — 500–1,000 per country — proves the model before full regional deployment.

PHASE 1 — YEAR 1–2
US$25M
5,000-hectare pilot across all 15 nations
Land preparation (5,000 ha)
$4.0M
Agroforestry establishment ($1,336/ha)
$6.7M
IAGRO SAT satellite monitoring
$5.0M
Farmer training + cooperative formation
$4.0M
Water & access road infrastructure
$5.3M
Total pilot investment
$25.0M
PILOT RETURNS (YEAR 2–5)
$2.5M
Year 1 revenue
5,000 ha × $500/ha
$9.0M/yr
Year 3+ revenue
5,000 ha × $1,799/ha
$125K+
Carbon credits/yr
5K ha × 5t × $5
3–4 yrs
Payback period
conservative model
FULL PROGRAMME — YEAR 5+
US$614M
459,500 ha × $1,336/ha establishment cost
Total establishment capital needed
$523M
Annual net farm income
$703M/year
at full activation
10-year NPV (8% discount rate)
>$4.0B
Carbon revenue (at $5/tCO2e)
$11.5M/year
Carbon revenue (at $15/tCO2e)
$34.5M/year
Import savings contribution
~$108M/year
JOBS CREATED AT FULL ACTIVATION
~159,000
Direct agricultural positions on Tier 2 accessible land. 2–4x downstream multiplier adds additional indirect jobs across the regional supply chain and food processing sector.
FINANCING OPTIONS
OPTION A
Grant + TA
$25M
Grant

$25M grant for pilot phase + technical assistance across all 15 countries. Covers satellite monitoring infrastructure, farmer training, and cooperative formation.

OPTION B
Concessional Loan
$100M
3% / 25 years

$100M concessional loan at 3% interest over 25 years for Phase 1 full-country rollout. Debt service covered by farm revenues from Year 3. National governments as sovereign borrowers.

OPTION C
Equity Investment
$500M
Trust Structure

$500M equity stake in a Regional Food Infrastructure Trust. Lead investor holds governance seat. Returns linked to farm revenues, carbon credit sales, and import substitution savings. Structured as a blended finance vehicle.

Section 05 — The Regional Food Network

15 Nations, 1 Integrated Food System

Intra-regional food trade currently accounts for less than 10% of total Caribbean food trade. The CARICOM Single Market target is 25% by 2030. CaribVista creates the agricultural surplus that makes that trade possible.

Guyana (food surplus) → islands → import reduction. Surplus countries supply deficit islands. Every country contributes its comparative advantage.
🇬🇾NET SURPLUS
Guyana
Regional breadbasket
Rice, root crops, timber, carbon credits
🇩🇴NET SURPLUS
Dominican Republic
Premium exports hub
Hispaniola cocoa (premium), coffee, organic produce
🇸🇷NET SURPLUS
Suriname
Commodity producer
Rice, tropical timber, certified carbon offsets
🇧🇿NET SURPLUS
Belize
Specialty crop base
Cacao, citrus, honey, agroforestry products
🇯🇲MIXED
Jamaica
Premium niche market
Blue Mountain coffee, scotch bonnet, specialty herbs
🇹🇹MIXED
Trinidad & Tobago
Processing & finance
Cocoa processing, agricultural finance, tech hub
🇧🇧MIXED
Barbados
Carbon credit market
Carbon registry, agri-tech R&D, premium vegetables
🇰🇳MIXED
St Kitts & Nevis
Sugar estate conversion
Root crops, livestock, greenhouse vegetables
🇱🇨MIXED
St Lucia
Post-banana transition
Cocoa, coconut, vanilla, premium spices
🇬🇩MIXED
Grenada
Spice isle exports
Nutmeg, cocoa, cinnamon, clove, breadfruit
🇩🇲MIXED
Dominica
Nature isle organics
Bay oil (bay rum), cocoa, coffee, root crops
🇧🇸DEFICIT→RECOVERY
The Bahamas
Greenhouse hub
Protected agriculture, microgreens, herbs, fish
🇦🇬DEFICIT→RECOVERY
Antigua & Barbuda
Drought-smart farming
Sheep, goat, greenhouse vegetables, tamarind
🇻🇨MIXED
St Vincent & the Grenadines
Arrowroot & root crops
Arrowroot (world #1), dasheen, breadfruit, cocoa
🇭🇹DEFICIT→RECOVERY
Haiti
Recovering producer
Vetiver oil (50% world supply), Francique mango (GI protected)
HURRICANE RESILIENCE — AGROFORESTRY ADVANTAGE
Hurricane Mitch (1998) study across 1,804 plots: agroforestry farms retained 20–40% more topsoil than monoculture neighbours. The advantage increased with storm intensity.
CUBA — HURRICANE IKE (2008)
Agroecological farms: 50% crop losses. Monoculture farms: 90–100% crop losses. Recovery after 40 days: agroforestry at 80–90% vs monocultures far behind.
ROOT DEPTH = STORM SURVIVAL
Mango trees: 6-metre taproot. Annual crops: 15–60cm. Tree roots anchor soil, prevent mudslides, and allow 6-month NDVI recovery vs years for monoculture devastation.
The Conclusion

No family in the
Caribbean should go hungry.

459,500 hectares of accessible idle land. ~159,000 jobs waiting to exist. A $6 billion import bill waiting to be cut in half. The satellite data is real. The land is real. The hunger is real.
This programme does not ask for charity. It asks for catalytic capital to unlock commercially viable food production that will generate returns, create regional employment, reduce the NCD epidemic that kills three in four Caribbean people, and position the Caribbean Basin as a model for food-sovereign small island development — for every SIDS nation on earth watching.
~460K
Hectares of accessible idle land confirmed by satellite across 15 nations
IAGRO SAT CENSUS 2026
~159K
Direct agricultural jobs created at full programme activation
SOCIAL IMPACT MODEL
$828M
Net farm income per year at full activation (conservative)
460K HA × $1,799/HA
30M+
People across 15 nations who inherit this food system
15 CARICOM MEMBER STATES
UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS ADVANCED
SDG 1No PovertySDG 2Zero HungerSDG 3Good Health & WellbeingSDG 5Gender EqualitySDG 8Decent WorkSDG 12Responsible ConsumptionSDG 13Climate ActionSDG 15Life on Land
SOURCE DIRECTORY — 25 PRIMARY CITATIONS
13
IAGRO SAT Caribbean — Satellite Idle Land Census (2026)
25
IAGRO SAT — Barbados Idle Grassland Feasibility Study (2026)
IAGRO SAT CARIBBEAN // CARIBVISTA LAND TRUST (PROPOSED) // DATA CURRENT AS OF 2026-02-24
ALL FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS ARE ESTIMATES BASED ON DOCUMENTED BENCHMARKS. SATELLITE DATA FROM SENTINEL-2 VIA ESA COPERNICUS PROGRAMME.
NCD DATA: WHO, PAHO, WORLD BANK, CARPHA, IDF DIABETES ATLAS. AGROFORESTRY DATA: CIFOR-ICRAF, FAO, PEER-REVIEWED LITERATURE.